Subjective Health Expectations

Measuring Revisions to Subjective Expectations

This paper develops a new metric to measure revisions to subjective expectations and proposes a survey design strategy that enables the estimation of the metric. As an application, I analyze how women update their expectations about the e¤ectiveness of contraception methods. The women interviewed exhibit substantial heterogeneity in the way they revise their expectations with receipt of the sam...

Prior Expectations Shape Subjective Perceptual Confidence

Subjective Expectations and Asset-Return Puzzles

Three major puzzles, described later in this section, have captured the attention of macroeconomic finance: the equity-premium, riskfreerate and equity-volatility puzzles. A common strand of these three asset-return puzzles is that markets are behaving as if investors fear some unknown hidden randomness that isn’t obvious from the data. People are acting in the aggregate like there is much more...

Subjective health expectations of patients with age-related macular degeneration treated with antiVEGF drugs

BACKGROUND Subjective expectations regarding future health may influence patients' judgement of current health and treatment effects, as well as adherence to therapies in chronic diseases. We aimed to explore subjective expectations on longevity and future health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of patients with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) treated with antiVEGF injections and analyse ...

The predictive validity of subjective mortality expectations: evidence from the Health and Retirement Study.

Several recent studies suggest that individual subjective survival forecasts are powerful predictors of both mortality and behavior. Using 15 years of longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, I present an alternative view. Across a wide range of ages, predictions of in-sample mortality rates based on subjective forecasts are substantially less accurate than predictions based on p...